Ilustre Señor Baltar, you have proposed the most likely hypothesis of what has happened.
Of course, these complex events usually do not have a single cause. If we delve deeper into the root causes, i could suggest some that could have contributed:
1. the unwillingness of Russia to allow Syria to defend itself from Israeli air attacks for years might have contributed to resentment & degradation of the Syrian army.
2. the unwillingness of Russia (& Iran?) to intervene in the "Diversity-Friendly Jihadist" nest of Idlib. No need for a land campaign, just bombing Jihadi infrastructure from the air would have discouraged the headchoppers.
3. the unwillingness of Russia (& Iran?) to intervene in US-occupied Eastern Syria via proxies, for example getting at the Gringo bases one drone or IED at a time and generating a constant drip of casualties there.
4. China not helping to rebuild Syria and economically stabilize the country.
5. By far the most important factor for the weakened state of the Syrian nation have been the crippling US sanctions & its theft of the rich eastern regions and its oil and agricultural land.
6. Cultural clashes between the religious Iranian/Shia forces in Syria and Syria's secular society.
How much have these factors played for years into Assad's worsening position?
Had he any room for maneuver at all even if he hadn't been duped by the Arab League?
Are Russia's and Iran's "official explanations" (putting basically all the blame on Assad) more aimed at their own public opinion with the aim of avoiding responsibilities from their own governments?
Syria couldn't be economically stabilized as long as the sanctions were in place along with the revenue producing oil patch and grain fields were occupied.
Russia and Iran both had agreements with the US to leave Idlib alone. Syria had an army and could have built it's own drones to attack US interests.
Assad didn't want to talk to Erdogan and refused the advice from Russia and Iran. Iran pulled it's IRGC forces out a while back since it didn't appear Assad was interested.
"You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink."
Excellent analysis, due to its objectivity, its balance and the share of uncertainties that remain as to the ins and outs of a drama that was to be expected given the geopolitical context of the moment. From this analysis, indisputable facts emerge: The pernicious role of Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, without forgetting, of course, the underhand and continuous activities of Israel and NATO. As for President Al-Assad, should we not agree that his attitude stems mainly from his concern to avoid engaging in a fight that was lost in advance and whose only result would be a massive and useless bloodbath from which he was certain he would not emerge victorious. A bloodless economy, a demoralized army, widespread corruption and, no doubt, strategic errors have undoubtedly convinced him that it was illusory to continue to fight against such forces that have been determined for so many years to dismember the country in accordance with Zionist plans. However, it is not certain that this attitude of the lesser evil will spare Syria from dire tomorrows like what was experienced in Libya or Iraq. When vultures and hyenas swarm, it is better for the lion to move away….
Quote: "I’m completely aware that the analysis I’m providing here is completely speculative and could very well be partly or completely wrong." "This is obviously wildly speculative, but it’s not impossible.
Quote: "Still, a speculative analysis can be useful as a tool for further investigation."
Exactly.... this adds to what is known and contributes to assembling the puzzle. Good work
Thank you for this brilliant analysis. I had previously been swayed by Alex Kreiner's Trap Thesis, but you've blown something of a hole in it: Assad walking away from impending massacres. It's possible, however, they all are quite that cold-blooded. Check out Alex: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVMfckVQ7Hg
Very good analysis, Dr. Baltar, as usual. At the moment it is very difficult to know what is really happening in Syria, I think that is left for the higher echelons. It is hateful to see how the hyenas feast on the remains of the unfortunate country, they really do not waste time in looting or destroying. But we will see if it does not choke them. Very curious the silence of China, I do not know how to interpret it. And despite what is being said, my admiration for Mr. Assad: I cannot imagine what that man has endured with such dignity and aplomb. Mr. Assad, take your rest: you have deserved it.
So, sanctions work but not in the way they're usually sold to the public. Instead of turning the people against the government, they work over a decade (or more) to sap the country's abilities - which produces discontent among the people as a sideeffect - and then once the country is sufficiently weakened the enemies swoop in for the kill.
Russia is open to negotiations with the US over Ukraine. We mustn't confuse negotiations with an end to the combat. Negotiations will begin and the battles will continue.
"War is thus an act of force to compel our enemy to do our will. ... To secure that object we must render the enemy powerless, and that, in theory, is the true aim of warfare. That aim takes the place of the object. Discarding it as something not actually part of the war."
- Clausewitz
BRICS is nothing more than a front for nations to trade in their own currencies or any other currency they wish beyond the US, BIS and what ever other frameworks are currently in place for the neoilliberal "rules based international order" bullshit.
Hard times make for strong men. And nothing changes until the environment changes. Syria is now an example of what must happen elsewhere if our species is to repair itself. We have been too affluent for too long and become soft and parasitic rather than hard and productive. A cauldron of bloody melee will sadly cull both the weak and the innocent, but ultimately the survivors will the strongest, smartest, and most resilient among us. Neither religion, politics, nor morality are paramount in this sorting process, only fitness will matter. It has always been thus. I will conclude with a speculative prediction. Israel and Turkey have created a Frankenstein's monster and will live to regret it. Iran will acquire nukes as necessary self-defense and Russia will not allow the US to subvert Iran. Israel just bought its worst nightmare.
A scenario of deadly checkmate, indeed. Exiting noiselessly was clearly judged as essential, a fanfare would have meant an ugly death...sauve qui peut...
"The Axis of Resistance, including Russia and Iran, have until now been governed by extreme naiveté. Russia is still open to a deal over Ukraine and Iran seriously still thinks a deal with the US is possible. They still assume that words are good and deals will be honored."
I think the question is not about naiveté but policy...
I would like to get the thoughts of the experts in this area: Why does the United States have troops on the ground in Syria? And what reasons would we have to stay beyond Jan 20?
There’s also a clear Saudi-Qatari rift, with Qatar together with Turkey the main backer of the Muslim Brotherhood and Saudi opposed. There was the Saudi embargo on Qatar during Trump I. MB appears to be the woke-liberal wing of Wahhabism, aligned with the EU (Qatar is a top supplier of gas to the EU) and Obama-Biden, while Saudi is aligned with Trump.
As for Iran, Iran-Saudi relations have warmed and Iran-Qatari relations cooled over Biden’s term.
Ilustre Señor Baltar, you have proposed the most likely hypothesis of what has happened.
Of course, these complex events usually do not have a single cause. If we delve deeper into the root causes, i could suggest some that could have contributed:
1. the unwillingness of Russia to allow Syria to defend itself from Israeli air attacks for years might have contributed to resentment & degradation of the Syrian army.
2. the unwillingness of Russia (& Iran?) to intervene in the "Diversity-Friendly Jihadist" nest of Idlib. No need for a land campaign, just bombing Jihadi infrastructure from the air would have discouraged the headchoppers.
3. the unwillingness of Russia (& Iran?) to intervene in US-occupied Eastern Syria via proxies, for example getting at the Gringo bases one drone or IED at a time and generating a constant drip of casualties there.
4. China not helping to rebuild Syria and economically stabilize the country.
5. By far the most important factor for the weakened state of the Syrian nation have been the crippling US sanctions & its theft of the rich eastern regions and its oil and agricultural land.
6. Cultural clashes between the religious Iranian/Shia forces in Syria and Syria's secular society.
How much have these factors played for years into Assad's worsening position?
Had he any room for maneuver at all even if he hadn't been duped by the Arab League?
Are Russia's and Iran's "official explanations" (putting basically all the blame on Assad) more aimed at their own public opinion with the aim of avoiding responsibilities from their own governments?
etc...
Syria couldn't be economically stabilized as long as the sanctions were in place along with the revenue producing oil patch and grain fields were occupied.
Russia and Iran both had agreements with the US to leave Idlib alone. Syria had an army and could have built it's own drones to attack US interests.
Assad didn't want to talk to Erdogan and refused the advice from Russia and Iran. Iran pulled it's IRGC forces out a while back since it didn't appear Assad was interested.
"You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink."
Excellent analysis, due to its objectivity, its balance and the share of uncertainties that remain as to the ins and outs of a drama that was to be expected given the geopolitical context of the moment. From this analysis, indisputable facts emerge: The pernicious role of Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, without forgetting, of course, the underhand and continuous activities of Israel and NATO. As for President Al-Assad, should we not agree that his attitude stems mainly from his concern to avoid engaging in a fight that was lost in advance and whose only result would be a massive and useless bloodbath from which he was certain he would not emerge victorious. A bloodless economy, a demoralized army, widespread corruption and, no doubt, strategic errors have undoubtedly convinced him that it was illusory to continue to fight against such forces that have been determined for so many years to dismember the country in accordance with Zionist plans. However, it is not certain that this attitude of the lesser evil will spare Syria from dire tomorrows like what was experienced in Libya or Iraq. When vultures and hyenas swarm, it is better for the lion to move away….
Quote: "I’m completely aware that the analysis I’m providing here is completely speculative and could very well be partly or completely wrong." "This is obviously wildly speculative, but it’s not impossible.
Quote: "Still, a speculative analysis can be useful as a tool for further investigation."
Exactly.... this adds to what is known and contributes to assembling the puzzle. Good work
Thank you for this brilliant analysis. I had previously been swayed by Alex Kreiner's Trap Thesis, but you've blown something of a hole in it: Assad walking away from impending massacres. It's possible, however, they all are quite that cold-blooded. Check out Alex: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVMfckVQ7Hg
Completely agree.
Very good analysis, Dr. Baltar, as usual. At the moment it is very difficult to know what is really happening in Syria, I think that is left for the higher echelons. It is hateful to see how the hyenas feast on the remains of the unfortunate country, they really do not waste time in looting or destroying. But we will see if it does not choke them. Very curious the silence of China, I do not know how to interpret it. And despite what is being said, my admiration for Mr. Assad: I cannot imagine what that man has endured with such dignity and aplomb. Mr. Assad, take your rest: you have deserved it.
So, sanctions work but not in the way they're usually sold to the public. Instead of turning the people against the government, they work over a decade (or more) to sap the country's abilities - which produces discontent among the people as a sideeffect - and then once the country is sufficiently weakened the enemies swoop in for the kill.
Interesting that Cuba still resists.
Russia is open to negotiations with the US over Ukraine. We mustn't confuse negotiations with an end to the combat. Negotiations will begin and the battles will continue.
"War is thus an act of force to compel our enemy to do our will. ... To secure that object we must render the enemy powerless, and that, in theory, is the true aim of warfare. That aim takes the place of the object. Discarding it as something not actually part of the war."
- Clausewitz
BRICS is nothing more than a front for nations to trade in their own currencies or any other currency they wish beyond the US, BIS and what ever other frameworks are currently in place for the neoilliberal "rules based international order" bullshit.
Speculation it may be, but highly intelligent and extremely plausible.
Hard times make for strong men. And nothing changes until the environment changes. Syria is now an example of what must happen elsewhere if our species is to repair itself. We have been too affluent for too long and become soft and parasitic rather than hard and productive. A cauldron of bloody melee will sadly cull both the weak and the innocent, but ultimately the survivors will the strongest, smartest, and most resilient among us. Neither religion, politics, nor morality are paramount in this sorting process, only fitness will matter. It has always been thus. I will conclude with a speculative prediction. Israel and Turkey have created a Frankenstein's monster and will live to regret it. Iran will acquire nukes as necessary self-defense and Russia will not allow the US to subvert Iran. Israel just bought its worst nightmare.
I give you a heart for the introduction and back to read.
I think you nailed it. Fits with what I've learned from various sources.
A scenario of deadly checkmate, indeed. Exiting noiselessly was clearly judged as essential, a fanfare would have meant an ugly death...sauve qui peut...
"The Axis of Resistance, including Russia and Iran, have until now been governed by extreme naiveté. Russia is still open to a deal over Ukraine and Iran seriously still thinks a deal with the US is possible. They still assume that words are good and deals will be honored."
I think the question is not about naiveté but policy...
I would like to get the thoughts of the experts in this area: Why does the United States have troops on the ground in Syria? And what reasons would we have to stay beyond Jan 20?
tres bonne hypothese
There’s also a clear Saudi-Qatari rift, with Qatar together with Turkey the main backer of the Muslim Brotherhood and Saudi opposed. There was the Saudi embargo on Qatar during Trump I. MB appears to be the woke-liberal wing of Wahhabism, aligned with the EU (Qatar is a top supplier of gas to the EU) and Obama-Biden, while Saudi is aligned with Trump.
As for Iran, Iran-Saudi relations have warmed and Iran-Qatari relations cooled over Biden’s term.