Things are bleak in Europe these days. European leaders are caught in a “fight or flight” response, deciding whether they should run and hide or send troops into Ukraine to fight the Menace from the East. However, the existential terror of Emmanuel Macron and his toxic-narcissist accomplices in the EU will have to wait for a dedicated article because this one will focus on the European economy.
I'm also reminded of the old Holomodor, brought about by a failure of central planning. And also that episode when Chinese killed all their sparrows. Also a failure of central planning. But, but, the real issue is what I call Paradox of Centralization. Basically, to make it super short, a decentralized system has many agents making decisions, each for a small part of the system. The likelyhood of any one of them making a horrible mistake is small but because of their large number, you ~always have a dissaster happening somewhere. However these dissasters are small (relatively speaking) and the overall system can repopulate the devastated part of itself after the disaster. However, there's always some disaster burning somewhere. Contrast this to the centralized system, marked by having a small number of agents making decisions for large parts of the overall system. Their likelyhood of making mistakes is the same, individually, as for the agents in the decentralized system. However, because there's so few of them, there are periods of time when there's no dissaster anywhere. Thus people think centralized systems are better - their short lives just happen to overlap the period of time where accidentally there were no dissasters in a centralized system - and they try to convert their systems to centralized ones. And this is when the Paradox trully strikes: for if too large a percentage of the overall system is damaged by ACCIDENTALLY SIMULTANEOUS bad decisions of agents, the entire system dies. Due to simple brute math, decentralized systems are far, far less likely to amass this critical damage - too many agents would need to make bad decisions simultaneously. But centralized systems are prone to doing just that: only a few agents need to (purely accidentally) make disastrous decisions at the same moment.
So, mathematically, if you wish to ensure the longevity of your system, you should only centralize those things that are centralized by their very nature (and are therefore physically, logically or metaphysically impossible to decentralize), and otherwise decentralize everything.
The crisis of competence can't be understated here. Even if the hidden hand behind the current agenda is completely sure of its success, I don't see how they can pull it off, given the obvious incompetence of their subordinates. Something is bound to break eventually, and it won't be in the EU's favour. I see Hungary and Slovakia playing a key role, possibly by aligning with Russia once the Ukraine debacle is ended, which puts them both on the border of the New Ukraine - not a neutral rump state, but a Russian ally, after the 'integral nationalists' have all fled to Canada.
I base this on the observation that while the Ukrainian census reports only 17.5% ethnic Russian, the last valid election in 2010 was split almost evenly between pro-Russian and Pro-Nationalist, with the balance slightly in Russia's favour. What this tells me is that fully half the population would support a new government aligned with Russia, and since much of the population has already fled to the EU (they got their wish, although not in the way they anticipated vis. Maidan) and won't be returning, at least not the nationalist elements, the path is clear for essential reforms that bring Ukraine into the natural alliance that should have occurred in 1992, but which was thwarted by the ambitions of Leonid Kravchuk and Boris Yeltisn.
That new alignment of Hungary and Slovakia, if it occurs, will act like a giant magnet on the remaining Eastern EU members, who will have a choice between a revitalized economy based on trade and diplomacy with the emergent Pan-Asian alliance, or a descent into poverty and irrelevance within the fading empire of the West.
Looking even further down the road, I see a mass migration in the offing - not of the worst elements of the nations the EU took an active hand in destroying - that will be ongoing - but of competent Europeans looking to escape the disaster, whose skills and personal integrity will be a welcome addition to a Russia that lacks only one thing at this point - the population needed to consolidate its place as the leading industrial power of the 21st century.
For all the people asking "when will the europeans rise up" i'd like to recommend a book called "The Populist Delusion" by Dr. Nema Parvini. It will allow you to grasp the fact that the commoner is sheep, and everything political is always an elite struggle. Every revolution was a change of elites. Your hope should not be that the peoples of Europe rise up, but that other people with money and better judgement replace the current rich pyschos running the show.
Just like the US, the managerial state in the EU has no accountability. They welcome mass migration and make protest a crime. A war with Russia was always a losing hand. The EU has no effective military or military industrial complex to supply a military. Russia does. Those of fighting age in the EU are soft. Without Russian oil, EU industries grind to a halt. But no one in the EU will face consequences until social order breaks down. Meanwhile, the EU likes to act like a power broker instead of the broken power they really are.
Beyond all the psychopathic, narcissistic and arrogant decisions on the part of the governments, to an outsider it really looks like a collective seppuku of Europe. Correct me if my perception is wrong but, even with so many protests going on, the average person just seems to have given up on trying. Just waiting for it all to come crashing down, for some sort of clean break from all the “baggage” of old Europe.
Only I’m afraid that that’s not how things work in the real world and even if there is a death and rebirth they will be in for a rude awakening.
Thank you for this article. This is extremely disturbing information. I was contemplating to retire and move to France from USA. On expat forums I found out that many French citizens are not able to use more than set limit of money on their banking accounts. Some even have to wait till next month in order to do purchases (?). Turned out that you probably can go and unclick that parameter and increase your limit. But eventually it will go back automatically after some time. Also, there are serious limits on using cash. Like maximum 1K per certain time period. Looks like this is part of a plan. The reaction of people is very calm and understanding. They probably got used to weird staff. Also, real estate properties now have A, B, C, D etc etc rating. It looks like this reflects how the building is insulated. There is a law and there might be penalties if you do not insulate your building. I am wondering on what penalties and what are the consequences for home/apartment owners. This is all very worrisome. This plan is in action and it will end very very badly. This is the matter of time.
The US and EU are doing a fantastic job of destroying their credibility with straight faced hypocrisy about human rights, democracy, etc. It seems that Anwar Ibrahim jolted Scholz while visiting Germany, and I expect other ASEAN leaders have similar feelings about being lectured by EU autocrats. Many want to join BRICS and Russia is prioritizing financial arrangements. A lot points to a good foundation outside the USD and EU control system of neocolonial rule. Are diplomatic breakups in the offing - hope so. The US and Europe are not the centre of technological/industrial progress they once were. The covid and carbon scams are being exposed, so there's hope for those outside the collective west, perhaps not so much for the trapped.
Excellent job of summarizing and giving explanation of what appears to be madness. The merger of state with corporations is defined as fascism. The US also is moving into a fascist construct, whilst the post WWII American Empire unravels.
TL,DR The FED and the US commercial banks are at war with the ECB and the Davos shitbags (and their US apparatchiks), and are bankrupting them via "higher for longer" interest rates (which they now control via SOFOR instead of LIBOR), and they are winning. This is because they made enormous loans in USD which have to be paid back in USD, and they can't issue them/don't control USD interest rates..
That doesn't mean the US will emerge unscathed, but they will be much better off than Europe, which is screwed.
Thank you for this brilliant article - arguably the best I've read in a very long time.
This should be read out in the streets by the town crier, or modern equivalent.
https://thegreattaking.com/
I'm also reminded of the old Holomodor, brought about by a failure of central planning. And also that episode when Chinese killed all their sparrows. Also a failure of central planning. But, but, the real issue is what I call Paradox of Centralization. Basically, to make it super short, a decentralized system has many agents making decisions, each for a small part of the system. The likelyhood of any one of them making a horrible mistake is small but because of their large number, you ~always have a dissaster happening somewhere. However these dissasters are small (relatively speaking) and the overall system can repopulate the devastated part of itself after the disaster. However, there's always some disaster burning somewhere. Contrast this to the centralized system, marked by having a small number of agents making decisions for large parts of the overall system. Their likelyhood of making mistakes is the same, individually, as for the agents in the decentralized system. However, because there's so few of them, there are periods of time when there's no dissaster anywhere. Thus people think centralized systems are better - their short lives just happen to overlap the period of time where accidentally there were no dissasters in a centralized system - and they try to convert their systems to centralized ones. And this is when the Paradox trully strikes: for if too large a percentage of the overall system is damaged by ACCIDENTALLY SIMULTANEOUS bad decisions of agents, the entire system dies. Due to simple brute math, decentralized systems are far, far less likely to amass this critical damage - too many agents would need to make bad decisions simultaneously. But centralized systems are prone to doing just that: only a few agents need to (purely accidentally) make disastrous decisions at the same moment.
So, mathematically, if you wish to ensure the longevity of your system, you should only centralize those things that are centralized by their very nature (and are therefore physically, logically or metaphysically impossible to decentralize), and otherwise decentralize everything.
This is a great companion piece to your earlier post:
https://gaiusbaltar.substack.com/p/why-is-the-west-so-weak-and-russia
The crisis of competence can't be understated here. Even if the hidden hand behind the current agenda is completely sure of its success, I don't see how they can pull it off, given the obvious incompetence of their subordinates. Something is bound to break eventually, and it won't be in the EU's favour. I see Hungary and Slovakia playing a key role, possibly by aligning with Russia once the Ukraine debacle is ended, which puts them both on the border of the New Ukraine - not a neutral rump state, but a Russian ally, after the 'integral nationalists' have all fled to Canada.
I base this on the observation that while the Ukrainian census reports only 17.5% ethnic Russian, the last valid election in 2010 was split almost evenly between pro-Russian and Pro-Nationalist, with the balance slightly in Russia's favour. What this tells me is that fully half the population would support a new government aligned with Russia, and since much of the population has already fled to the EU (they got their wish, although not in the way they anticipated vis. Maidan) and won't be returning, at least not the nationalist elements, the path is clear for essential reforms that bring Ukraine into the natural alliance that should have occurred in 1992, but which was thwarted by the ambitions of Leonid Kravchuk and Boris Yeltisn.
That new alignment of Hungary and Slovakia, if it occurs, will act like a giant magnet on the remaining Eastern EU members, who will have a choice between a revitalized economy based on trade and diplomacy with the emergent Pan-Asian alliance, or a descent into poverty and irrelevance within the fading empire of the West.
Looking even further down the road, I see a mass migration in the offing - not of the worst elements of the nations the EU took an active hand in destroying - that will be ongoing - but of competent Europeans looking to escape the disaster, whose skills and personal integrity will be a welcome addition to a Russia that lacks only one thing at this point - the population needed to consolidate its place as the leading industrial power of the 21st century.
For all the people asking "when will the europeans rise up" i'd like to recommend a book called "The Populist Delusion" by Dr. Nema Parvini. It will allow you to grasp the fact that the commoner is sheep, and everything political is always an elite struggle. Every revolution was a change of elites. Your hope should not be that the peoples of Europe rise up, but that other people with money and better judgement replace the current rich pyschos running the show.
Just like the US, the managerial state in the EU has no accountability. They welcome mass migration and make protest a crime. A war with Russia was always a losing hand. The EU has no effective military or military industrial complex to supply a military. Russia does. Those of fighting age in the EU are soft. Without Russian oil, EU industries grind to a halt. But no one in the EU will face consequences until social order breaks down. Meanwhile, the EU likes to act like a power broker instead of the broken power they really are.
Beyond all the psychopathic, narcissistic and arrogant decisions on the part of the governments, to an outsider it really looks like a collective seppuku of Europe. Correct me if my perception is wrong but, even with so many protests going on, the average person just seems to have given up on trying. Just waiting for it all to come crashing down, for some sort of clean break from all the “baggage” of old Europe.
Only I’m afraid that that’s not how things work in the real world and even if there is a death and rebirth they will be in for a rude awakening.
What if the European middle class decamped to Argentina?
Bring the capital and expertise to an educated, but poor country which will soon be whiter than Europe.
Thank you for this article. This is extremely disturbing information. I was contemplating to retire and move to France from USA. On expat forums I found out that many French citizens are not able to use more than set limit of money on their banking accounts. Some even have to wait till next month in order to do purchases (?). Turned out that you probably can go and unclick that parameter and increase your limit. But eventually it will go back automatically after some time. Also, there are serious limits on using cash. Like maximum 1K per certain time period. Looks like this is part of a plan. The reaction of people is very calm and understanding. They probably got used to weird staff. Also, real estate properties now have A, B, C, D etc etc rating. It looks like this reflects how the building is insulated. There is a law and there might be penalties if you do not insulate your building. I am wondering on what penalties and what are the consequences for home/apartment owners. This is all very worrisome. This plan is in action and it will end very very badly. This is the matter of time.
The US and EU are doing a fantastic job of destroying their credibility with straight faced hypocrisy about human rights, democracy, etc. It seems that Anwar Ibrahim jolted Scholz while visiting Germany, and I expect other ASEAN leaders have similar feelings about being lectured by EU autocrats. Many want to join BRICS and Russia is prioritizing financial arrangements. A lot points to a good foundation outside the USD and EU control system of neocolonial rule. Are diplomatic breakups in the offing - hope so. The US and Europe are not the centre of technological/industrial progress they once were. The covid and carbon scams are being exposed, so there's hope for those outside the collective west, perhaps not so much for the trapped.
Excellent job of summarizing and giving explanation of what appears to be madness. The merger of state with corporations is defined as fascism. The US also is moving into a fascist construct, whilst the post WWII American Empire unravels.
Very machiavellian or painful stupid? It is hard to think the EU elites are capable of rational thought. So I believe they are stupid.
Because there’s sick twisted individuals like Soros that hate humanity and like seeing pain..
We need to treat DC the same way… as a bunch of lunatics unfit to lead the USA anywhere.
Tom Lluongo has the receipts on this https://tomluongo.me/2023/10/30/powell-exposes-europe-hidden-war-bonds/ and Qpol has picked up on his thesis and expanding on it https://qpol.substack.com/p/economic-reset-under-the-powell-doctrine . There are other articles/podcasts where they get into this much more specifically if you want to look over their sites.
TL,DR The FED and the US commercial banks are at war with the ECB and the Davos shitbags (and their US apparatchiks), and are bankrupting them via "higher for longer" interest rates (which they now control via SOFOR instead of LIBOR), and they are winning. This is because they made enormous loans in USD which have to be paid back in USD, and they can't issue them/don't control USD interest rates..
That doesn't mean the US will emerge unscathed, but they will be much better off than Europe, which is screwed.
Simple.
Corporate Fascism....
How will it end?
Well, (1) Russia is gonna win; (2) BRICS is gonna spank the Corporate Globalist Western Cabal and (3) your typical European Revolution.
Euro is overdue for another Big War.
Can we believe that people will finally wake up before this "death foretold"?
Can we hope that the European Union will disintegrate through the narcissism and greed of its "national" extras?
Are these future masters of the world biting off more than they can chew?
Can the global South somehow prevent this controlling machine from gaining a foothold in the world?